OPEC May 2011 MOMR

At the middle of the month OPEC release their Monthly Oil Market Report, a document of over 80 pages. The MOMR reviews the global economies and discusses the oil outlook.

For 2011, OPEC projects a 1.4mb/d demand increase over 2010, which is now somewhat lower than the 2.1mb/d they projected earlier. That means oil demand grew from the 84.57mb/d in 2009 to 86.67mb/d in 2010 and is projected to increase to 88.08mb/d for the year 2011.

The principal drivers of this demand growth are the emerging economies. Total demand in the developed world, North America, Western Europe and OECD Pacific (Total OECD) is projected to increase by only 0.19mb/d from 2009 to 2011. 87.23% of global oil demand growth comes from outside the OECD. In a couple of years the "total other regions" will consume more oil than the "total OECD".

The interesting development, for the marine market, is contained in the forecasted y-o-y growth in product demand. For 2011 the trend in declining residual fuels continues unabated at -6%, gasoline and diesel demand lead the refined product growth at 21% and 41% respectively.