International Energy Agency

The 2010 Key statistics by the IEA are rather interesting. Oil consumption keeps rising, residual fuel production is declining and we see a shift in the global refining picture. The developing economies of China, Asia and the Middle East are adding refinery capacity aggressively while in the developed world capacity is being consolidated.

In 1973 33.8% of refinery throughput ended up as residual fuel, by 2008 this shrank to 15.1% globally. In Canada refineries produce only about 7% residual oil from their feedstock, in the USA it is lower still. The fact that refiners today produce more light product per barrel of oil, suggests that the quality of the residual fuel is deteriorating.

Regulations are tightening, calling for cleaner stack emissions from ships, on the other hand residual fuel quality is declining. The question then is, how will ship owners comply with these tightening regulations? Will they be able to burn lower quality residual fuels forever with secondary treatment of the exhaust gases, or will they be forced to burn premium-priced light fuel, because marine fuel won't be available anymore; in part due to the increased refinery yield, in part due to the shift in refining to the emerging economies?

Is it possible that tightening oil supply will some day force ship owners to burn distilled product?