If I read the IEA's medium-term Oil & Gas Markets 2010 correctly, we are moving towards tighter oil, while we have ample natural gas available from North American sources.
The medium-term looks forward to 2015 only. The oil supply down the road relies on an OPEC capacity increase by 2014 and increased reliance, also from 2014 onward on the Canadian oil sands and biofuels.
Another concern might be the shift of refining capacity; China, Asia and the Mid-East are adding refining capacity of 9 mb/d whereas the OECD cuts capacity by at least 1.4 mb/d by 2015.
With the ECA requirements tightening by 2015 and being fully implemented by 2020 (for which we have no projections), we will rely more on foreign finished product than we do today, especially for marine fuel as domestic refiners will cater to the higher volume land based transport sector. Therefore, it would almost seem logical to consider LNG as THE alternative fuel for marine transport for the medium to the long term; this would reduce GHG and harmful emissions from ships while providing secure, long-term low cost fuel.
- Gernot Seebacher
- Gernot is the president of Hermont Marine, a company specializing in pollution abatement and shipboard support. He has a mechanical engineering degree and has been working with the Canadian marine industry for over 33 years. He is actively involved in marine organizations: he participates in the CMAC standing committee on the environment and their working group on air emissions; he has participated in and organized various environmental working groups; he was the executive secretary of the Canadian Institue of Marine Engineering (CIMARE) for over 16 years.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment